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January 12th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:  Powell Probe The DOJ has opened a criminal investigation into whether Fed Chair Powell misled Congress about the cost of renovating the Fed's headquarters. Powell clapped back yesterday, calling the move a "pretext" to pressure the Fed to cut rates. Polymarket traders see near-term charges for Powell as unlikely. |
Let's Make a Deal Following reports that Trump is prepping airstrikes on Iran, Tehran has reached out to reboot nuclear talks. But Polymarket traders seem to think we're already past this point. |
Regime Change It's still more than twice as likely that Khamenei leaves power this year than any kind of nuclear deal. |
| US forces enter Iran by January 31? View market → | 10%-8% |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? View market → | 84%+41% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? View market → | 16%+13% |
| Uganda Presidential Election | 2d |
| What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31? | 3d |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | 3d |
| "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office | 26m |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | 12h ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| Fed decision in January? | $17.32M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $3.61M |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | $3.57M |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | $2.41M |
| Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club | 5h |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 27d |
Whale Moves | "No" Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | $1.29M |
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