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January 11th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:  Report: Trump Prepping Iran Strikes On Saturday, the New York Post reported that Trump is "weighing preliminary attack plans" on Iran in support of protesters seeking to topple the regime. Overnight, odds spiked as high as 66% for a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran this month. |
Khameni Yet several of Polymarket's sharpest geopolitical traders are betting against a quick fall of the Iranian regime. For example, "Chungguskhan" has bet over $240k that Khamenei will hold on through the end of the month. |
KPop The Golden Globes air tonight at 8pm ET. The most action has been on "Best Animated Motion Picture," with KPop Demon Hunters as the heavy favorite. |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? View market → | 17%+4% |
| Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? View market → | 69%+26% |
| Another Elon baby by June 30? View market → | 28%+19% |
| Another US strike on Venezuela on...? | 11h |
| Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday? | 11h |
| "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office | 23h |
| "Primate" Opening Weekend Box Office | 23h |
| Next Country US Strikes | 7h ago |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | 7h ago |
| Palantir (PLTR) closes week of Jan 12 at ___? | 1d ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| Fed decision in January? | $16.64M |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | $3.77M |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | $2.49M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | 27d |
Whale Moves | "Under" Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 140.5 | $321.0K |
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