Fumbling towards a shutdown

January 30th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning: Top Stories Lindsey Graham The government shutdown polymarket has seen wild swings in the past 24 hours. Trump and Senate Dems struck a deal to fund most agencies through September while extending DHS funding for two weeks as Democrats seek enforcement changes after the shooting of Alex Pretti. But Trump ally Lindsey Graham blocked the deal Thursday night, objecting to a provision that would repeal a law allowing senators to sue if their phone records were seized during Jack Smith's investigation. The Senate meets at 11AM today to continue debate. Read more → ​ Quick Links How long will the shutdown last? → Iran As Trump continues to move military assets towards the Middle East, Polymarket traders are increasingly confident that the U.S. will strike Iran in the second half of February. Read more → ​ Quick Links Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? → It's Kevin! Trump is expected to announce Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair this morning. Powell's term ends in May, and the market is pricing in a modest easing cycle, with 2-3 quarter-point cuts as the most likely scenario through year-end. Check odds → ​ Breaking News Odds Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? View market → 99% +84% Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28? View market → 97% +79% Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? View market → 60% +53% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? 11h Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? 11h Largest Company end of January? 11h U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? 11h See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? 12h ago Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? 13h ago Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? 16h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Fed decision in March? $5.57M Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 $4.58M Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...? $4.40M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 170d 2026 NBA Champion 151d UEFA Champions League Winner 120d 2026 Men's Australian Open Winner 1d Cavaliers vs. Suns 13h See all Top Sports → ​ ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.