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January 15th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:  China Lifeline? Odds for a U.S. strike on Iran were surging last night until two Chinese jets entered Iran's otherwise empty airspace. Did Beijing make a call? |
Did the Mullahs Turn Off Your Phone? A suspiciously-timed Verizon outage lasted roughly 10 hours yesterday. But Polymarket traders think it is unlikely to be definitively linked to Iran. |
Bad Bunny Bad Bunny is still ahead for Album of the Year in the 2026 Grammy Awards, which airs Feb. 1. But Kendrick Lamar and Lady Gaga have both made gains in recent trading. Full awards list after the jump. |
| Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? View market → | 55%+19% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by March 31? View market → | 35%+14% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition View market → | 35%+13% |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | 1h |
| Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? | 11h |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | 11h |
| What will Trump say during WEF Address on January 21? | 12h ago |
| January Inflation US - Annual (Lower Brackets) | 14h ago |
| What will Zohran Mamdani say during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement? | 15h ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $4.91M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $4.91M |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | $3.83M |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | $3.21M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | $2.63M |
| 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion | 165d |
Whale Moves | "No" US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | $93.4K |
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| "No" Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | $87.3K |
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| "No" Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | $100.0K |
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| "No" US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | $219.1K |
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