Tehran coup?

April 22nd, 2026 Unsubscribe Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today: Top News Who is running Iran? Polymarket traders are fading reports of an IRGC-led coup against the more moderate Ghalibaf faction. But internal power dynamics are hurting odds of Hormuz normalization and a lasting peace deal. Check odds → ​ Quick Links Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? → Iran coup attempt by June 30? → Spirit Spiking oil prices have compounded problems for already-struggling Spirit Airlines. But Polymarket traders think they will be able to stave off bankruptcy at least through the end of May. Check odds → ​ Quick Links US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? → Unlucky 13? The New York Mets blew another game on Tuesday night, their 12th loss in a row. Traders think the streak will probably end tonight (60% chance they beat the Twins). Check odds → ​ Wallet Watch ColdMath "ColdMath" is one of Polymarket's most studied weather traders. The account has an 81.6% win rate, driven almost exclusively by temperature predictions. View Wallet → ​ Breaking News Odds US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? View market → 9% -76% Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? View market → 97% +70% Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? View market → 40% -49% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner 13h Trump approval rating on April 24? 2d How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26) 3d How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 20 - April 26? 3d See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ by May 31? 13h ago Will SpaceX acquire Cursor? 10h ago Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...? 13h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Fed decision in April? $4.80M US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? $3.42M Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...? $12.31M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend 4h NFL Champion 2027 298d 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 88d See all Top Sports → ​ ​ Top Comments Powered by @Poly_Archive ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 750480 New York, NY 10003-1502 U.S.