Wednesday, March 18, 2026

The Future of mRNA Vaccines

Plus: Larijani dead | Colombia bombed | And you can still marry your cousin in Florida.
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James P. SuttonPeter GattusoRoss Anderson / March 18, 2026
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Quick Hits: Today's Top Stories
1Israel Kills Two Senior Iranian Leaders
Israeli officials on Tuesday said that their forces conducted air strikes overnight in Iran that killed two of the country's senior leaders in separate attacks: Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Basij paramilitary commander Gholamreza Soleimani. Iranian state-sanctioned news confirmed both leaders' deaths later on Tuesday. The Israel Defense Forces said that both leaders played a role in the violence against civilians during protests earlier this year, stating that Larijani "personally oversaw the massacre" of Iranian demonstrators, and that "Basij forces under Soleimani's command led the main repression operations, employing severe violence, widespread arrests and the use of force against civilian demonstrators." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have "successfully hit more than 100 military and security targets" in Israel in response, according to Iranian state-sanctioned media. Iran fired missiles into central Israel on Tuesday, killing two people—a couple in their 70s—in the city of Ramat Gan, located east of Tel Aviv. Reuters reported that Iranian explosive drones targeted U.S. diplomatic facilities in Baghdad, but reportedly caused no casualties.
  • Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced this morning that the Israeli military killed Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib and said that "significant surprises are expected throughout this day on all the fronts."
  • Iran launched missiles and drones at Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, most of which were intercepted by their respective air defenses.
  • Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand told Bloomberg on Tuesday that the country "has no intention of participating in" offensive military operations against Iran.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron said that France will "never take part" in military operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "in the current context," emphasizing that his country is "not party to the conflict."
2Bombing in Colombia
Colombian President Gustavo Petro stationed Colombian troops along the border with Ecuador after he claimed that the Ecuadorian military bombed a site in Colombian territory, killing at least 27 people. During a cabinet meeting, Petro said he asked President Donald Trump to discuss the matter with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, stating. "We do not want to go to war," he said. Illegal armed groups involved in cocaine trafficking operate along the border, but Petro said the nature of the attack—an aerial bombing—rules out their involvement. Noboa denied Petro's claim that Ecuador was responsible for the attack, noting that while the country had conducted aerial raids on Sunday night targeting the lairs of Colombian-based drug-trafficking cartels and "narco terrorists," its forces only struck sites within Ecuadorian territory.
  • Petro claimed that Colombian authorities discovered an undetonated bomb "100 meters from the home of an impoverished peasant family."
  • Earlier this month, the U.S. assisted in Ecuadorian military operations targeting illegal cartel activity in the country.
3White House Offers Shutdown Concessions
The White House and Senate Democrats exchanged offers Monday and Tuesday on a deal to pass legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for the remainder of the 2026 fiscal year, which runs through September 30. DHS has been shut down since February 14, when a two-week funding extension expired. On Tuesday, the White House released a letter addressed to Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Katie Britt of Alabama, agreeing to expand the use of body-worn cameras in non-undercover immigration operations, limit operations at "certain sensitive locations … like hospitals and schools," ensure Congress can properly oversee DHS detention facilities, require non-undercover federal agents to display "visible officer identification," and "adhere to existing law and practice of not deporting any U.S. citizen." To learn more about the shutdown, read last Friday's TMD.
  • Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection remain operational due to funding appropriated by Congress in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year.
4Pipe Bomb Suspect Argues He Was Pardoned
Attorneys representing the 30-year-old Virginia resident accused of planting pipe bombs outside the Washington, D.C., headquarters of both the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee on the night of January 5, 2021, requested in a legal filing that the federal judge overseeing his case dismiss the charges because he was protected by the presidential pardon Trump granted for January 6 offenders. Trump's pardon applied to those charged with "offenses related to events that occurred at or near" the U.S. Capitol on January 6, and the suspected would-be pipe bomber's legal team argued that such a description "unequivocally applies" to him, because his alleged actions are "in no manner … wholly independent of events at the Capitol on January 6."
  • A White House official said in a statement that the pardon "clearly does not cover this scenario," noting that the pipe bombs were allegedly placed on January 5, not January 6.
  • Trump issued the sweeping pardon on January 20, his first day back in office, fulfilling a 2024 campaign promise.
5Arizona Charges Kalshi
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes on Tuesday filed 20 misdemeanor criminal charges against the online prediction market platform Kalshi for allegedly operating what is effectively an illegal gambling operation, in addition to "election wagering." "Kalshi may brand itself as a 'prediction market,' but what it's actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law," Mayes said in a statement. "No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow." Mayes told Arizona media that Kalshi had violated the state's clear gaming laws, including allowing users to place bets on events such as elections and military operations. "Those things are just illegal in the state of Arizona," she said. A Kalshi spokeswoman said the accusations brought by Arizona are "meritless" and "seriously flawed," while accusing state officials of engaging in "gamesmanship."
  • The Arizona's attorney general's office noted in a statement that on March 12, Kalshi preemptively sued the state in what it described as "an attempt to avoid accountability under Arizona law."

Future of Medicine: Robotic Arm with Syringe, AI Healthcare Concept
Illustration via Getty Images.
"Personalized medicine" has become a buzzword in the health care industry in recent years, as doctors and scientists increasingly adopt new technologies to tailor medical treatments to each patient's specific needs. Now, the field has its very own poster dog.

Rosie, a mutt rescued from the Australian bush in 2019 and adopted by tech entrepreneur Paul Conyngham, was diagnosed with terminal cancer in 2024. But after Conyngham, an artificial intelligence expert, utilized specialized programs and the work of a team of Australian researchers to produce a customized cancer vaccine for Rosie using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, Rosie's tumors began to shrink and disappear.

It's the first time a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine has ever been used for a dog, University of New South Wales researchers say. It's also a striking example of how mRNA technology is reshaping the future of medicine for humans too. But the implementation of mRNA technology and the treatments it enables still face medical—and now political—hurdles.

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mRNA technology—using messenger RNA, essentially a sequence of biological code, to deliver instructions to the body's cells and train the immune system to recognize and attack specific mutations or foreign invaders, such as cancer cells or viruses—has been under development for decades. But its medical application became much more practical through Nobel Prize-winning research by Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman of the University of Pennsylvania, who in 2005 discovered a way to introduce mRNA into the body without triggering a destructive immune response.

With that advance, Karikó and Weissman unlocked the two massive medical advantages of mRNA: customization and speed.

"The trick to this is that mRNAs are natural parts of the human body, and they pass away from the body very quickly," Jeff Coller, a professor of RNA biology and therapeutics at Johns Hopkins University, told TMD. "That's really important because you don't want a drug to be permanent. You don't want to take a drug, and then constantly in your body have Tylenol, for example." Instead, he explained, mRNA technology enables targeted, temporary treatments for diseases such as cancer and rare genetic disorders at the individual level.

Vaccine development is also accelerated by mRNA technology. "As soon as we understand the sequence of the virus and what we have to target, usually the envelope proteins, then we can quickly make vaccines," Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunobiology at the Yale University School of Medicine, told TMD. During the COVID-19 pandemic, mRNA technology enabled Moderna researchers to finalize the design of their vaccine only two days after Chinese scientists released the COVID-19 genome to the world. Traditional vaccine development can take months or even years.

"The real advantage of using mRNA is when speed is really important," Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told TMD.

Conyngham took full advantage of both kinds of breakthroughs to help his dog Rosie. Distraught by the fact that chemotherapy for his dog was failing to work, he paid for a research team at the University of New South Wales to sequence Rosie's DNA, then used AlphaFold—an AI system that predicts the structure of proteins—to suggest a way to attack his dog's cancer cells using mRNA. Her advanced tumors have now halved in size, according to Rachel Allavena, a canine immunotherapy professor at the University of Queensland's veterinary school, whose research team administered the vaccine.

For dogs, mRNA treatments like these are novel. "I haven't come across anything like it," Allavena told TMD. "The fact that she had such advanced disease and she got such a good response makes me very, very hopeful." But while Conyngham's specific AI expertise and dogged initiative certainly helped develop the vaccine, Allavena noted that Rosie's treatment was a group effort that still relied on highly specialized scientific expertise. "It's not a basement vaccine … it's a really high-tech vaccine," she said.

More than 100 clinical trials for similar vaccines using mRNA to target a variety of human cancers have been conducted. "On the human side, they're much more advanced," David Vail, a doctor who studies the comparative treatment of cancer in animals and humans at the University of Wisconsin School of Veterinary Medicine, told TMD. While off-the-shelf cancer vaccines for both dogs and humans already exist, custom mRNA vaccines offer the advantage of tailored formulations for each patient's tumors.

For all their promise, mRNA treatments have real limitations. Not all cancers respond to mRNA vaccines, and the vaccines are most effective when used as part of a larger battery of therapies. "Probably less than 10 percent of people that are given just an mRNA personalized vaccine will have a robust response," Vail said, adding that the treatments should be used in combination with other established treatments.

Cost is also a major concern. "Personalized immunotherapy for a single patient is presently an expensive option, both for humans and for dogs," Mark Mamula, a professor at the Yale School of Medicine and the founder of TheraJan, a company developing a canine cancer vaccine, told TMD.

Bringing costs down will likely also require the Food and Drug Administration to rethink its approach to approving individualized therapies. "Commercialization in the marketplace just breaks down because we're used to the FDA approving, testing, and marketing drugs at scale," Coller explained, making the cost of each custom therapy inordinately expensive for the average person. For the tens of millions of Americans who have one of the roughly 10,000 documented rare diseases, "we don't have a way to bring those therapies forward in a way that the cost is less than, like, $3 million per patient," Coller said.

The Trump administration doesn't appear poised to ease regulatory burdens on companies working on this technology. In August, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced the cancellation of $500 million in HHS contracts that supported mRNA vaccine research through the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). Then, in early February, the FDA's top vaccine regulator refused to review an application for approval of Moderna's mRNA-based flu vaccine, which had entered the final stages of trials before Kennedy's appointment, in a rare reversal on a study the agency had already agreed to. Only a White House intervention convinced the FDA to allow the final approval process to go forward.

The Department of Defense's Joint Program Executive Office for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense—which was already funding multiple mRNA vaccine projects—stepped in to at least partially cover the shortfalls for some projects defunded by Kennedy's HHS. The U.S. Department of Agriculture also provides funding for mRNA vaccines targeting diseases that affect livestock. But this only covers a fraction of what BARDA offered to researchers. And while some other governments, like the European Union, and private nonprofits, like the Gates Foundation, have ramped up broader vaccine funding—some of which has benefited stalled mRNA projects—their investments weren't designed to replace BARDA's targeted support for the technology and haven't done so. Pharmaceutical companies can't fill the gap either, Adalja told TMD: "When it comes to infectious disease countermeasures for biothreats, [the funding cut] was basically a fatal blow."

Richard H. Hughes IV, a member at the law firm Epstein Becker Green and a former executive at Moderna, told TMD that the message sent by the government's decision, not just the money lost, is critical. "I can tell you that years and years of effort went into developing that technology, with and without government partnership … because they believed they would have a market; that there would be a recognized public health need, that regulators would act in good faith," he said. "What you're seeing are very clear signals that the opposite is becoming true."

Others in the industry seem to agree. "You cannot make a return on investment if you don't have access to the U.S. market," Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said at the World Economic Forum in January, while announcing that his company had no plans to invest in new late-stage infectious disease vaccine trials.

"I think the U.S. risks a future when the cutting edge of biotech innovation no longer runs through San Francisco or Boston, but through Beijing and Shanghai," Sam Howell, an associate fellow with the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, told TMD.

Even though they currently face political headwinds, mRNA vaccines and therapies offer immense promise. Though Rosie the dog isn't cancer-free, Conyngham says she now enjoys a far higher quality of life, able to walk around and appear on daytime TV. For humans, last year 6-month-old KJ Muldoon began receiving a bespoke CRISPR gene-editing treatment, delivered via mRNA, at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia for a rare metabolic condition known as severe carbamoyl phosphate synthetase 1 deficiency, which kills half of all babies who suffer from it in their early infancy and causes severe developmental delays and liver problems in others. Nearly a year later, "Baby KJ" is healthy and thriving.

"You've got a whole population of scientists around the world who are inspired to start using this technology to do all sorts of interesting interventions," Coller said. "But they're experiencing significant headwinds in the United States because of the federal landscape. That's just the reality."
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In Other News
Today in America
  • U.S. military officials said one person was killed and another injured following a shooting at the Holloman Air Force Base in southern New Mexico.
  • National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned from his position, writing in a public letter to Trump that "Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation."
  • New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for withholding nearly $60 million in federal funding for a Manhattan subway expansion project.
  • New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's law department asked a judge if Mamdani's office could quit representing former Mayor Eric Adams in a sexual assault lawsuit brought against him in March 2024.
  • A federal judge ordered the reinstatement of more than 1,000 Voice of America employees, ruling that U.S. Agency for Global Media head Kari Lake's efforts to wind down the broadcaster were "arbitrary and capricious" and that she had "repeatedly thumbed her nose" at statutory requirements.
  • Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein said that the Pentagon's Golden Dome missile defense system is now expected to cost $185 billion—up $10 billion from previous estimates—though the Congressional Budget Office places the 20-year cost as high as $831 billion.
Around the World
  • Indian authorities arrested seven people, one American and six Ukrainian nationals, for allegedly crossing into Burma in order to train armed groups.
  • Cuban envoy Tanieris Diéguez La O said that the country's regime plans to loosen restrictions, making it easier for Cubans living abroad to send money back to the country.
  • Nigerian authorities said that armed gunmen killed 15 people in an attack on two separate villages in the northwestern part of the country, retaliation for an earlier attack in which local forces killed three gunmen.
  • Paraguay officially ratified the European Union-Mercosur trade deal, becoming the last South American country to formally approve the agreement.
  • The acting Venezuelan government appointed Asdrúbal Chávez—the cousin of the country's former leader, Hugo Chávez—to lead the U.S.-based company PDV Holding and its subsidiary Citgo.
  • Venezuela defeated the United States by a score of 3-2 to win the World Baseball Classic tournament.
On the Money
  • U.S. vinyl sales surpassed $1 billion in revenue for the first time since 1983—marking a 19th consecutive year of growth—while overall recorded music revenue hit a record $11.5 billion, driven primarily by streaming subscriptions.
  • Microsoft restructured the leadership of its AI division to allow Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman—the former co-founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI—to develop new models.
  • Amazon unveiled a new expedited online delivery service in some U.S. locations that offers one-hour and three-hour delivery.
  • The U.K.-based defense and aerospace startup Cambridge Aerospace is reportedly discussing investment funding of its drone interceptor system at a valuation of more than $1 billion.
  • Mastercard reached a deal to acquire U.K.-based stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, $300 million of which is determined on meeting agreed-upon performance benchmarks.
Worth Your Time
  • "The Billionaire Backlash Against a Philanthropic Dream." (New York Times)
  • Amy Kazmin reports on Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's controversial judicial reforms, which will go to a referendum this weekend. (Financial Times)
  • Amal Chandra reveals how India is emulating China's surveillance practices. (The UnPopulist)
  • Kevin Schaul and Shira Ovide break down the jobs that are most and least adaptable to AI technology. (Washington Post)
  • Ben Thompson argues that there isn't an AI bubble. (Stratechery)
  • Warner Bros. releases the teaser trailer for Dune: Part 3. (YouTube)
Presented Without Comment
New York Post: Floridians Can Still Marry Their Cousins After Lawmakers Fail To Pass Statewide Ban
Also Presented Without Comment
New York Times: Oscars Red Carpet as a Floor Upgrade? Woman's Dumpster Dive Led to a New Rug.
Also Also Presented Without Comment
BBC: Zoo Celebrates First UK-Born Elephant Shrews
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