Tom Verducci delivers a mix of expert commentary, inside angles and thoughtful perspectives on baseball’s biggest storylines every week.
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Dodgers’ September To-Do List Has Seven Essential Steps |
The Dodgers just endured their first losing August in 16 years. They hit .241 in the month, making this their first losing August with a batting average that low in 42 years. If they’re not careful, they may be playing themselves into a wild card series against the Padres, whose bullpen makes them especially dangerous in a short series and are decidedly not the 83-win Reds that Los Angeles easily dispatched in the first round last year.
Yes, the Dodgers have looked as vulnerable as they have in years while playing losing baseball since the Fourth of July (23–24). That’s almost a third of a season. But their rotation and pedigree still make them the favorite to win the World Series. August did not change that.
But here’s what did change in August: the swoon created Los Angeles’s longest to-do list down the stretch in several years. The Dodgers have 25 games left. Here is what they need to address in those 25 games before October.
1. Get Shohei Ohtani healthy.
The Dodgers have put a pause on Ohtani’s return to pitching. There is still time to get him four starts before October, but the red flags from his abbreviated bullpen session suggest a wait-and-see approach.
What’s more important is to get Ohtani right so that he can again be a dominant hitter in a lineup that suddenly needs his power more than ever. Ohtani’s average exit velocity has dropped a second straight month to 91.7 mph, his lowest monthly level in four years.
2. Figure out the closer position.
Edwin Diaz does not look like the answer until he fixes his mechanical issues (see my Breakdown of the Week below). Roki Sasaki has a blister issue. Tanner Scott is running away from his fastball more now that it has the highest average allowed in seven years (.253).
3. Get Will Smith back to lengthen the lineup.
The back half of the Dodgers’ lineup just doesn’t have enough thump. Smith is a premier defender, game caller and clutch hitter.
4. Salvage something from Kyle Tucker.
Hoo-boy. Read below for my analysis of just how far Tucker has fallen.
5. Give Mookie Betts some rest.
Betts deserves a ton of credit by making himself into a premier defender. He has worked so hard on his footwork and range that he has played a very solid shortstop without an elite arm. And he is one of the game’s great playmakers—if in the hottest moments there is a relay to be made, a double play to be turned or a runner driven in, Betts is your guy.
But I’ve written often about how middle infielders age quickly. Not a single qualified shortstop over age 30 has an OPS+ of 100 or more this season. Betts, 33, is part of that trend. A hitter with some of the fastest hands in the game is no longer catching up to velocity.
Betts vs. Pitches 95+ MPH
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| Year |
Pct. Seen |
BA |
SLG |
| 2020 |
14.1% |
.343 |
.657 |
| 2021 |
15.0% |
.274 |
.597 |
| 2022 |
19.4% |
.272 |
.544 |
| 2023 |
18.2% |
.400 |
.700 |
| 2024 |
20.1% |
.351 |
.526 |
| 2025 |
23.0% |
.331 |
.472 |
| 2026 |
23.1%* |
.200+ |
.318+ |
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*career high, +career low
6. Get Andy Pages back.
The Dodgers miss his defense and ability to hit non-fastballs in key spots. (He hits .333 against spin and off-speed with runners in scoring position, a huge skill in today’s game.) Los Angeles picked up Alek Thomas and sent him to two different hitting labs to get him untracked. It hasn’t worked out. Outside of a slightly higher leg kick, he still has a crossfire stride with drift that makes him vulnerable to spin (.146 this year)
7. Win the series against San Diego Sept. 22–24.
Why am I looking so far down the line? Because the Dodgers need a statement series. Consider that the Dodgers:
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- Are 2–14 in their past 16 games against potential playoff teams (Braves, Brewers, D-Backs, Cubs, Red Sox).
- Are 33–36 against teams .500 and better, a .478 winning percentage. Of the past 50 world champions, only five played worse than that against teams .500 or better (2002 Angels, 2006 Cardinals, 2010 and 2014 Giants and 2021 Braves).
- Have just two series left against winning teams: at the Marlins and home against the Padres.
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The Trouble(s) With Kyle Tucker |
How much longer will the Dodgers ride with Tucker? The occasional run-scoring hit inevitably sparks talk about how Tucker may be “turning the corner” or that he “found something.” There is no such hard evidence.
Tucker slashed .195/.293/.310 in August. The .603 OPS makes it the worst month of his career (min. 12 games). He has hit rock bottom, which is evident in how he recently changed his swing to try to change his fortunes.
Tucker’s natural swing includes an arm bar, in which the lead arm “bars” or straightens, causing the barrel to dip behind the body. It’s not a preferred style, but Tucker is one of plenty of successful hitters to hit this way. Among them are Derek Jeter and (slightly) Ted Williams, as you can see here.
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Recently, Tucker has taken to loading with his hands close to his head and the bat cocked, rather than “laying” the bat behind him. It’s a method similar to Max Muncy.
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But the swing change is not working. When Tucker used his arm bar, the barrel entered the hitting zone early (or behind the contact point), giving him more time to adjust to pitches. With the new path, the barrel enters the hitting zone later. It is in-and-out of the zone faster, giving him less time to adjust with a steeper, shorter swing.
Tucker Swing Metrics
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| Time Period |
Launch Angle |
Tilt |
| March-July |
18° |
36° |
| August |
21° |
37° |
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The less time the barrel is in the hitting zone the more vulnerable a hitter becomes to changes in speed. Tucker is getting dominated by pitches at both ends of the speed spectrum, elite velocity and off-speed. His profile this year by pitch type is that of a classic “slider bat speed” hitter.
Tucker Batting Average by Pitch Type
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| Year |
95+ mph |
Off-speed |
All others |
| 2024 |
.277 |
.300 |
.281 |
| 2025 |
.250 |
.231 |
.276 |
| 2026 |
.210 |
.198 |
.244 |
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Moreover, though Tucker is primarily a pull, fly ball hitter, he has lost the ability to cover pitches by driving them the other way, an indication of staying on the ball. Look at his hit spray charts from the past three seasons to see how his extra-base opposite power has cratered to almost nothing.
Tucker Hit Spray Charts, Left Side of Field
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Most mystifying of all is how Tucker’s offensive problems have bled into his entire game. The Dodgers should be alarmed how badly Tucker’s baserunning and fielding also have fallen off.
Tucker Percentiles
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| Year |
Batting |
Running |
Fielding |
Bat Speed |
Range |
| 2025 |
90 |
78 |
51 |
48 |
25 |
| 2026 |
27 |
49 |
5 |
35 |
2 |
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You might be thinking about turning Tucker into a platoon player, but he has hit lefties better than righties (.250-.219). You should be thinking about batting him lower in the lineup. He has hit below the sixth spot only 13 starts this year. The bottom line is the Dodgers have a .228 hitter who is trying to change his swing midseason and who defensively ranks dead last among 123 outfielders in outs above average.
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Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images
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Here is a quick comparison. Through 1,164 career games, Babe Ruth had 297 home runs. Shohei Ohtani has 310.
That is impressive enough on its own. But the bullpen-heavy game today makes for very different times. Last week Ohtani passed 1,000 pitchers faced in his career. He has played less than half as many games as the Babe did but already has seen more than twice as many pitchers.
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| |
Ruth |
Ohtani |
| Career Games |
2,502 |
1,164 |
| Ballparks |
16 |
37 |
| Pitchers Faced |
456 |
1,003 |
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Only One Clear Leader in ROY Races |
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
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The National League Rookie of the Year race is going down to the wire. WAR favorite JJ Wetherholt of the Cardinals, run producing specialist Sal Stewart of the Reds and do-everything outfielder Carson Benge all bring different arguments. But too many people overlook Mets righthander Nolan McLean, whose volume and efficiency are rare in today’s world. McLean is on track to become only the third rookie in the divisional era (58 seasons) with 30 starts, 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.25 ERA. The other two each won the ROY: Dwight Gooden in 1984 and John Montefusco in 1975.
The AL ROY race has less drama. Kevin McGonigle is pulling away from Munetaka Murakami, Parker Messick and Peyton Tolle, all of whom are having great seasons. McGonigle’s season is bordering on historic.
With a month still to play, McGonigle has the sixth highest WAR among U-21 first-year players—with a chance to pass Ted Williams, Albert Pujols and Frank Robinson as having the greatest debut of a player so young.
Highest WAR, First-Year U-21 Players
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| Player |
WAR |
| 1. Ted Williams, 1939 |
6.6 |
| 1. Albert Pujols, 2001 |
6.6 |
| 1. Frank Robinson, 1956 |
6.6 |
| 4. Jason Heyward, 2010 |
6.4 |
| 5. Julio Rodriguez, 2022 |
6.2 |
| 6. Kevin McGonigle, 2026 |
5.9 |
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McGonigle’s versatility, defense, baserunning and hit tools are obvious. So, I asked Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, “What do you see being around him every day that we don’t see?” The answer was even more laudatory than I expected.
“I think the thing that's a little unknown, because you guys aren't behind the scenes, is the plan—the game plan for him,” Hinch says. “Kevin's really good at creating a plan and going and executing it. It's not just results. It's the front end of that. Like, this guy will see small, subtle movements [from a pitcher] that aren't the same.
“Let's say a guy has normal 17 vert and he starts throwing one that's 20. He'll notice it before the scoreboard does. Or a guy's cutter is cutting more, or a guy's changeup is bottoming out as opposed to fading. That to me has been a ‘wow’ moment where he can see stuff that other hitters don't. Even other accomplished hitters.
“That’s so impressive for a 21-year-old kid. The problem is, if there is a problem with Kevin, is that he's so determined to beat them at what they're trying to do. I've joked with Kevin. I've moved him out of the leadoff spot and I'm like, ‘Because the first pitch of the game is up and away, you fly out to left.’ And so for three days he was so irritated with me. And then he smoked a ball up and away. He just stares at me from first base. He takes his gloves off and gets all mad. That's Kevin McGonigle. He's going to try to beat you at something that you're trying to do to him. He doesn't cower down.”
And then Hinch adds the kicker.
“He is like a combo of [Alex] Bregman and [Chase] Utley. The game planning and the way he knows what the pitcher is doing is like Bregman. And the grit of Chase. I played with one and managed the other. I hate doing that to him because I don't want to feed his ego. But I do love that he's uber-prepared and uber-competitive at the same time.”
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Don’t think Edwin Diaz automatically jumps into the closer role for the Dodgers once he comes off the IL. His injury-plagued season also is troubled by mechanical issues he needs to get straightened out. As you can see in this week’s breakdown and in the following chart, his release point and his arm angle have been dropping.
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The lower arm slot is doing a number on his slider. Diaz always has had a great chase slider, a pitch that looks like a strike until it dive bombs to his arm side out of the zone. But this year he is throwing too many sliders that are non-competitive—balls right out of his hand that don’t force a swing decision.
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| Year |
BA |
Zone% |
| 2025 |
.179 |
55.4% |
| 2026 |
.323 |
58.6% |
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Two-pitch relievers are scary because if hitters can dismiss one pitch—well, you do the math. Diaz’s fastball is getting waffled (.333 with .778 slug) because A) his velocity is down a tick and B) his arm angle is lower and C) his slider isn’t competitive enough to get hitters off his heater.
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