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January 6th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:  Greenland Odds for the U.S. to acquire Greenland this year have doubled in recent days. Hours after Maduro was captured, top White House aide Stephen Miller's wife posted a U.S. flag over Greenland with the caption "SOON." Denmark warned Trump to "stop the threats," with its prime minister recently vowing an attack on the NATO ally would end the alliance. |
Maduro Jail Time? Nicolás Maduro appeared in a Manhattan federal courthouse Monday, pleading not guilty to narco-terrorism charges. Traders see a lengthy prison sentence as most likely. |
Stalled IPOs? With Bill Ackman urging the administration to delay and experts calling the timeline "extraordinarily aggressive," odds for a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPO this year have fallen off a cliff. The most likely company to IPO in 2026? Once Upon a Farm, maker of picky-eater-approved baby snacks. |
| Deel IPO before 2027? View market → | 64%+44% |
| Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? View market → | 5%-49% |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? View market → | 56%-23% |
| #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | 2d |
| Khamenei public appearance by Friday? | 2d |
| Trump approval rating on January 9? | 2d |
| Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real? | 3d |
| Super Bowl LX Exact Outcome | 10h ago |
| Elon Musk # tweets January 9 - January 16, 2026? | 7h ago |
| Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings? | 10h ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| Infinex public sale total commitments? | $1.87M |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | $2.51M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $3.68M |
| Super Bowl Champion 2026 | $2.63M |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner | 194d |
Whale Moves | "Columbia Lions" Columbia Lions vs. Cornell Big Red | $203.9K |
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| "Yes" Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? | $112.8K |
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| "Under" Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes: O/U 154.5 | $78.8K |
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