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January 19th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning: It's Warsh? Odds for Trump to appoint Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair are hitting all time highs. This follows recent comments by Trump that he wants to keep Hassett, the other frontrunner, in his current White House job. |
 A Challeneger Arrives @aenews2, one of the most successful Polymarket traders in history, has emerged as the biggest "No" holder on Trump acquiring Greenland this year. He's betting well over $300k as of this morning. This is by far his largest position. |
| Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? View market → | 81%+32% |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX's initial public offering? View market → | 74%+15% |
| "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office | 30m |
| "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office | 30m |
| Oscars 2026: Best Picture Nominations | 2d |
| Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Nominations | 2d |
| Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? | 16h ago |
| Will any of Trump's Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | 1d ago |
| LCK Cup 2026: Winner | 1d ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| Fed decision in January? | $12.57M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $5.24M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $4.05M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | $2.47M |
| US strikes Iran by...? | $3.09M |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | $2.07M |
Whale Moves | "No" Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | $1.76M |
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